Quarry Vote Prediction

Boxing matches are known to begin with a tale of the tape. After sitting through multiple rounds of the fight over Liberty Quarry, my scorecard indicates a split decision. Let's review the five ringside judges, this time known as the , alphabetically.

Supervisor Marion Ashley is likely to vote for approval of as evidenced by his fast-track approval of a private military training facility in an area of Homeland zoned for rural agricultural use. Any development anywhere seems to be Ashley's modus operandi.

Supervisor John Benoit also appears to favor the project, and a flurry of support for Liberty Quarry comes from his district, which is far from Temecula. Ben Benoit, son of John and current member of the Wildomar City Council, has written letters in support of Liberty Quarry. As the adage goes, the acorn does not fall far from the tree.

Supervisor Bob Buster has been an environmental protection advocate for years. Considering Liberty Quarry would not be a good neighbor for the Santa Margarita Ecological Reserve and would interrupt an established wildlife habitat corridor, Buster’s opposition to the quarry seems a safe bet.

Supervisor Jeff Stone gained much of his political experience on the , and his constituents are overwhelmingly against the quarry. On the other hand, Stone does not shy away from the political limelight, and he wears his pro-business, conservative leanings on his sleeves.

Although Stone is a potential wildcard in the deck, it is hard to imagine him throwing his community and constituents under the Liberty Quarry bus, so the expectation is that he will also oppose the project.

Chairman John Tavaglione appears to be the tiebreaker vote. I would not want to play poker with Tavaglione, because he's hard to read. There are no tells to know what hand he is holding. His officiating of the Liberty Quarry hearings has been extremely evenhanded. The Tavaglione scorecard is just too close to call going into the final round.

The third board of supervisors hearing on Liberty Quarry begins at 9:00 a.m. on February 14 at the , 4080 Lemon Street. Granite Construction will spend most of Valentine's Day "romancing the stone," and the board’s vote could come by nightfall.

The supervisors are voting on an appeal of the County Planning Commission's 4-1 denial of the Liberty Quarry project. Granite Construction was unable to convince the Planning Commission to approve the quarry, and has yet to offer the supervisors a compelling argument why that decision should be reversed. Perhaps Granite is hoping to land a Sunday punch in the final round.

Whatever decision the supervisors arrive at is likely to be contested by the losing side, and that is when lawyers will start duking it out in courtrooms. In that venue, not only will the decision be scrutinized, but also, the entire public hearing process of Liberty Quarry will be put on trial.

Many interested parties are either anticipating or dreading the pivotal vote. Valentine’s Day could deliver Cupid’s blissful arrow or a shaft through the heart, depending on where your heart is in this decision.

Either way, this is but one crucial chapter of a story that is unlikely to end anytime soon.